Well, it is that time of year again when budgets are done, business is finishing up the year-end, vacations are often in full swing, and people tend to reflect on the past year. Not us, not here. We’re brazen, silly even, and willing to risk sticking our heads out to make our predictions of what the world in IT will look like in coming year.
Without further ado:
G³ Solutions 2007 PredictionsVista will ComeThe old movie line, if you build it they will come, comes to mind. While all the whiners will complain and all the pundits will cry our prediction is you will not see mass conversions to Linux, enterprise customers will upgrade Aero-be-damned, and all the DRM stuff will not matter to anyone who’s obeying the rules. (Note the term “rules” instead of “law” because there are some folks who are pretty sure that this isn’t lawful.)
We’ll even go so far out there as to not only predict that you will encounter Vista but that you will actually like it - assuming you give it half a chance.
Office 2007 will also ComeJust like Vista, Office will also show up on a PC near you. At first you’ll be boggled and, if you’re at all like most, you will abhor the new layout and menu changes but you’ll find that you get used to them and they actually do make you work faster and easier. So, once again, we feel that if you give it a chance you’ll even like it.
Java will not ForkSun was kind enough to spend a lot of money and time to release their flagship Java under GPL and while there have been some folks who have been wanting to put the code under the control of the nice folks at Apache they still retain code control. We expect that to remain the same and, not only that, we don’t expect any major forking to occur and, if it does, we don’t expect any non-sanctioned fork to survive.
Sun will Rise from the AshesLong-term lack of growth has moved Sun to the back-burner of the industry and nearly completely out of the minds of C-Level suits. The recent growth in their hardware division and the above release of Java to the Open Source Community with GPL licensing may well put them back on the map sooner than we might think. We expect that to happen in 2007.
Would we recommend that you go out and sell all your property to fund buying Sun stock? Not at this point but we certainly wouldn’t scoff at you for moving some of your funds over to include a nice chunk of Sun’s stock into your portfolio.
Still NO LinuxBeing accused of being zealots isn’t something we’d ever want and please understand that even the server you’re using at this very moment is Linux based. We have a firm belief that the only operating system you should use is the one that suits your unique needs best.
Contrary to popular pundit beliefs the Linux-as-a-Desktop movement isn’t going to have a huge uptake this year either. Why not? There are too many versions and it is still too complex for many home users who have a history of OEM installed Windows and the majority aren’t going to be willing to retrain themselves.
“Yes but I’m sure there will be a bunch of enterprises and businesses moving to Linux. Right?”
Err… No.
Emphatically - no. You see the people have long since taken over IT. Once the situation was nice, IT were Gods and we handed down the software and the user’s used it, but that is no more as can be evidenced by the increasing need to support consumer owned products, to provision network support for everything from VoIP to smart phones and then (oh the audacity) having to provide help-desk hours for those same devices and services. Now we’re simply a part of the business and we are controlled by the employees and they’re going to expect an operating system at work that they’re familiar with.
I’d also mention that the bean-counters are still fully convinced that the cost to convert to another operating system is not and will never be justified.
Will there be some conversion? Sure, there already has been some. Will it be massive and overwhelming and hurt Microsoft’s bottom line? Nope. Not even a little.
SPAM will ContinueFrom Pump-and-Dump to ads for things that claim to increase your sexual prowess - it will continue and while we may fight this battle they will only find newer and better ways past our filters. The only cure that will ever be viable is to take the money from it, in other words - convince everyone you know to stop clicking on the links and buying the products.
The Virus is DeadMalware lives on but a traditional virus is, for the most part, dead. No longer do folks author malware for the reason of causing mayhem but rather the goal is profit. You may see a small uptick when Vista rolls out or shortly after but those will be small and short-lived. Malware will lumber on and end-users will continue to happily click “YES” on everything they see but the traditional virus has gone the way of the dinosaur and, alas, it is not with any great fondness that we put that chapter of history to bed.
Exploits will IncreaseMuch in line with the above, exploits will continue to increase. As more software is moved to open source and online more access is given and more people will attempt to exploit it for financial reasons. Everything from forum software to blogging scripts will continue to be exploited at an increasing rate - and will be better for it. The software will be better, a natural selection, but the people using it must keep it updated. Authors of such software should consider making it easier to upgrade, if not because it will eventually differentiate them from those who fall by the wayside but also because encouraging maintaining the latest version is good for the community as a whole as it promotes security.
Wikipedia will not Die - YetAn open reference work is subject to all sorts of abuses and the added protection that is currently in place is enough for the moment but these people are likely to tire eventually - it just won’t be yet. Considering this resource as an accurate and total resource is still not a very smart thing to do but as a general rule much of the content there is trustworthy and that trend will continue for the time being.
Still no GovernmentIt is greatly ironic that people root and cheer for lawsuits vs. SPAMers or virus authors and then cry foul when a company loses their date or then whine when they’re presented with the idea of the government getting involved in net-neutrality. “No regulations,” they cry. “Save us,” they say. Which is it? Fortunately it doesn’t matter, nothing important will come of it other than perhaps some meaningless legislation that doesn’t do anything to help concerning privacy and the FCC doing all that it can to protect the incumbent carriers. Don’t worry, it won’t have much effect, if any, on most of you.
It is Getting hot in HereThis is so obvious that it is a no-brainer but let’s give it a twist… Shall we?
Yes, there will be much ado about decreasing power consumption and heat in the data center. Some changes (see the earlier Sun reference) are in the making and more are sure to come. This is all well and good but this won’t do a great deal for the area where the majority of computers reside and that is in the hands of the public. They want bigger, faster, and don’t really care what the results are. Notable exceptions might be the laptop fiasco that graced us, that is too hot for consumers but consumers are still going to buy biggest numbers they can afford - power and ecology be damned. It will be up to the vendors to do the work in consumer aimed products as the consumer isn’t going to look for anything other than large numbers.
Here is some of what we’d like to see happen but probably won’t:More people will look towards alternatives. Be it Linux or converting to a different browser. On a small scale this seems to happen now but there aren’t very many signs of this changing. We’d like people to consider looking to find the software that works best for them and to step away from the OEM system. A diversified target is a difficult target to attack and so this is one of the areas where security by obscurity makes sense. Find what works for you and go for it.
SaaS (Software as a Service for those who aren’t involved) has great potential but many of the free offerings aren’t good enough for prosumers or even consumers. In the enterprise and (more so with the changes that are making it financially reasonable) SMBs it makes a great deal of sense. No major changes there but it would be nice to see this.
Thin clients… *sighs* I love the idea, I love the cost reduction, I love the ease, and I love the capacity we have to do this with. Returning to the days of yore just doesn’t seem to be in the winds of change. Someone sneaked a PC under a desk and the face of IT has changed forever. For better? For worse? That is for you to decide but we were pretty intense in our control so this has made quite a few changes and some of them have lead to great advances as well as some horrific errors in how we dealt with things like security. In short, we’d love to see thin be in.
There are those who argue for regulation and those who argue against it. This isn’t going to change but there still isn’t going to be any regulation to ensure that the people who connect a computer to the internet are capable of making informed choices. The pervasive opinion that access is a right to all, regardless of what mayhem they cause or propagate, isn’t going to change. There will also be no tiered access to the internet that depends on a persons educational accomplishments. Such is surely not politically correct but really is a decent idea for creating a safer system for all.
People will still buy a Mac. I don’t know why as they are usually the same people who argue against proprietary stuff? There is nothing more proprietary than an Apple product. Where it not for their non-Mac products I think that they’d pretty much be sunk.
People will still be people. We’re amazing, as a race of humans, in our ability to commit harmful acts against one another. The ability for people to abuse nameless victims in a variety of ways over the internet is there and the people who capitalize on that are creeps. From sexual to financial abuses, they’re all creeps. They will continue being creeps.
And, well, there you have it. Those are our predictions (and doomsday statements) for the year 2007. How do you think we did? What predictions would you like to add? Be sure to bookmark this page so that you can check at the end of the year and see how well we did or to call us names all year long.
Most of all, as the holiday season winds to a close and a new year ramps up with everything from your new gadgets or new computers to your budget battle, we’d like to take a moment to thank you for being a part of our network and to wish you and your’s a wonderful year to come.
G³ Solutions
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2007 Predictions:
http://blog.kgiii...2007-predictions/Thanks.
